Gay Marriage in California? Don't bet on it.

A San Francisco Superior Court judge just ruled that limiting marriage to a man and a woman violates the California Constitution. Note that this is merely a Superior Court judge and accordingly the ruling has no precidential value. The AP article does not say what the immediate impact of the decision is - i.e., is Gavin Newsome now ordered to issue marriage licenses to the litigants? Is he enjoined from refusing to issue marriage licenses to gays and lesbians?

However, the AP article notes the following:

"A pair of bills pending before the California Legislature would put a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage on the November ballot. If California voters approve such an amendment, as those in 13 other states did last year, that would put the issue out of the control of lawmakers and the courts."

California has a reputation as being ultra-liberal. I predict at least 60% of California votes will vote to ban gay marriage . You heard it here.

Update: McGehee comments:

"I hope it's more than that -- state constitutional amendments in California must be approved by two-thirds of voters. 60% won't cut it."

Au contraire.

CALIFORNIA CONSTITUTIONARTICLE 18 AMENDING AND REVISING THE CONSTITUTIONSEC. 3.

The electors may amend the Constitution by initiative.

CALIFORNIA CONSTITUTIONARTICLE 18 AMENDING AND REVISING THE CONSTITUTIONSEC. 4.

A proposed amendment or revision shall be submitted to the electors and if approved by a majority of votes thereon takes effect the day after the election unless the measure provides otherwise. If provisions of 2 or more measures approved at the same election conflict, those of the measure receiving the highest affirmative vote shall prevail.