Friday, March 10, 2006

My bold prediction: Barry Bonds will not break Hank Aaron's home run record

After reading this article from Doug Gamble on NRO, I wrote him the following email, which I'll document here so I can say "I told you so":

I hate to say it, but it ain’t cheating if it ain’t against the rules. Until last year, using steroids was not against MLB’s rules. It might have violated some laws, though.

I disagree that Bonds is a shoo-in to break Hank Aaron’s record. Bonds needs to hit 48 more home runs. Other than his 73 year, the most Bonds has ever hit in a season is 49. Last year, injury plagued, he hit only 5. What will happen this year? My prediction:

Bonds will continue to get injured and miss a substantial part of the season. Why? He’s old and necessarily off steroids (or, if he’s still on them, he’ll get caught and sit out 10 games, then get caught again and sit out the season). Steroids not only add muscle mass but they also significantly decrease injury recovery time. Without the ‘roids, Bonds will get injured just like other 40+ year olds and have the same difficulty recovering and miss many, many games.

Even if Bonds plays a relatively full season, I predict he’ll only hit home runs in the 20s, maybe low 30s, without the ‘roids. If that is all he does this year, he’ll have to play another full year, relatively injury free, after this to break Hank’s record – again, without the help of ‘roids. Barry will be 42 in July.

You heard it here.


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